The forecast of deficient monsoon rainfalls scared farmers.
The most consistent wealth creators since 2008 are all consumer-facing companies, says Devangshu Datta.
The US Fed's rate cycle is set to turn later this year, but India is in a much better position than it was in 2013.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
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As on Monday, the prices of many vegetables had fallen as much as 50% compared with those a month before, due to increased supply, following the arrival of winter crops in the markets.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
'Valuations of midcaps and smallcaps have reached very high levels, and hence to that extent leave little margin of safety.'
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
Government's push for Make in India which focuses on select 26 sectors and improving the 'ease of doing business' will aid the manufacturing/industrial growth.
Dabur India has been the worst performer in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space this year (CY23), posting a 1 per cent decline even as its peer index, the Nifty FMCG, has delivered returns of over 29 per cent in this period.
If the pattern over the last three months is going to continue, the likelihood is that both indices will register inflation rates close to current levels over the next few months.
US consumer confidence tumbled to a five-year low in March, disappointing economists and raising fears that the American economy could be heading into a deep recession. The Conference Board's confidence index fell from 76.4 in February 64.5 this month, compared with economists' expectations of a much lighter drop to about 74, as US consumers fretted over the deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices.
After a delayed start, the monsoon is advancing steadily.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
The Nielsen survey was conducted online and covered more than 30,000 consumers across 60 markets.
Economy to grow 6.5% in 2016 on better macro conditions, says Mckinsey.
The change from wholesale to retail inflation as an anchor means that the weightage of diesel in inflation has decreased
Lower fuel subsidy payouts might restrict gross fiscal deficit in FY15.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1.4 per cent in November as most components like manufacturing, electricity, mining, primary goods, and consumer durables witnessed a slowdown, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This is on the base of a decline of 1.7 per cent in November 2020 and before the new Covid variant started impacting economic activity. IIP growth was lower than the 4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous month but was better than a 1.6 per cent contraction seen in November 2020. Separately, rising prices of kitchen staples pushed retail inflation, or rate of price increase, to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, bringing it close to the upper band of Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
The Seventh Pay Commission had decided to choose the CPI-IW as the index for adjusting inflation for central government employees.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), has been hitting successive all-time highs over the past three trading sessions. The rally in the scrip has helped it notch over a 21 per cent gain since the start of February, outperforming the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index. The gains for the leader of small passenger cars have been more recent, as the company still trails the Nifty Auto over one- and two-year periods.
The newest entrant to the Rs 46-trillion mutual fund (MF) space - Zerodha - plans to focus strictly on the low-cost passive segment and offer its products solely through the commission-free digital route, as it aims to replicate its broking success in the MF space. "We will offer an array of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds that would help investors take varied exposures and build portfolios based on their financial needs and risk tolerance. "Zerodha Fund House (FH) products will be exclusively distributed online and available as direct plans to engage directly with individual investors and consumers, taking advantage of the pronounced shift from physical to digital interactions," said Vishal Jain, chief executive officer, Zerodha FH.
The cooking oil national industry body -- Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has suggested immediate initiation of government to government (G2G) dialogue with Indonesia on the proposed palm oil export ban from April 28 by them as it would have an adverse repercussions in India. Indonesia, which is the world's largest producer of palm oil and meets nearly 50 per cent of the total palm oil requirement in India annually, had announced to ban exports till further notice apparently to contain edible oil prices in their domestic market. "We have suggested our government initiate dialogue with Indonesian counterparts at the highest diplomatic level on the cooking oil export ban.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on Friday said keeping inflation low is the key task for sustainable economic growth of the country.
But it is likely that campaign spending resulted in some positive activity through this period.
The broader markets ended in line with the benchmark indices- BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended higher by 1.3% and 0.9% each.
A rise in petrol and diesel consumption can help the government cut cesses on the fuels by Rs 4.5 a litre without impacting revenue collections of FY21, and help cool off the pressure on inflation, domestic rating agency ICRA said on Friday. Petrol consumption is estimated to increase 14 per cent in 2021-22 and diesel by 10 per cent on the lower base, rise in mobility and economic recovery, ICRA said. The rating agency added that it will result in an additional Rs 40,000 crore in revenue for the government through higher collections of the cess.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Saturday said that retail inflation is expected to remain close to 5 per cent
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1 points to end at 26,396 and the Nifty50 slipped 2 points to end at 8,109.
The RBI, which mainly factors in CPI for arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, has been mandated by the government to ensure that inflation remains at 4 per cent, with deviation of 2 per cent on either side.
Inflation in rural and urban areas in July was 8.45 per cent and 7.42 per cent, respectively.
The Central bank primarily factors Consumer Price Index while deciding on policy rate.
'Focus on 19,400/64,900 as the key resistance levels for the Nifty/Sensex.'
Jaitley said inflation has been under control for long and is likely to remain so on the back of good monsoon and unlikely spike in oil prices.
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday left the repo rate unchanged at 7.75 per cent, while the cash reserve ratio too is retained at 4 per cent.
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